Gunbarrel meteorologist gets it right

On Saturday, at the fire camp just west of Buffalo Bill Reservoir, temperatures were in the low 80s with a light breeze. Smoke was billowing over Jim Mountain like cumulous clouds smeared with pink dye. Rain seemed like a distant dream.

Nonetheless, Dave Lipson, incident meteorologist for the Gunbarrel Fire, predicted that it was going to rain over the Labor Day weekend. The rest of the type I incident management team listened. Before a drop of rain fell, fire hose was fetched off the mountain and camp workers began rolling it up in preparation for demobilization.
Sure enough, Lipson's precipitation prediction was right on the money — rain and snow arrived Sunday and Monday, placing a strangle-hold on the fire’s advance. The prediction wasn't a matter of luck...

Lipson was on loan from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration office in Riverton. Today’s firefighters use science to predict and hopefully corral fire behavior. Though, ultimately, nature still calls the shots.

“We can’t control the weather,” Lipson said, “but we can control the fire to a certain extent.”

Meteorologists and fire management can guesstimate where a fire will travel to plan fire lines, protect areas or implement burn-outs to contain fires.

Predicting the weather not only helps fire strategy planning, it helps personnel plan for fire camp life. If a cold front or moisture is en route, more sleeping bags can be ordered and equipment covered, Lipson said.

A type I incident management team - the most highly trained type - requires a certified incident meteorologist, such as Lipson. Other type teams can request them as well.

To make his forecasts, Lipson observes first-hand how a fire reacts to weather and how the weather reacts to fire. He accompanies reconnaissance flights, hikes fire perimeters, observes burn-out areas, and launches weather balloons to ascertain what the weather and wind is up to.

On the Gunbarrel fire, a permanent weather station near Eagle Creek (about five miles east of Yellowstone National Park) and a temporary station on Logan Mountain (around 15 miles west of Cody) provided Lipson with wind speed/direction, temperature and precipitation.Fire can be a strange thing to predict. Ironically, a smoke plume rising on one end of a fire can shade the other end, thus reducing heat and reducing the fire. But a fire can also wither everything in its path and so create more fuel or a whirlwind to increase its radius, Lipson said.

Lipson digs what he does. He said it is gratifying see the direct results of his forecasts. With the Gunbarrel fire held at bay by the Lipson-predicted wet stuff, there's little wonder why.

More rain and snow is expected. However, even if the weather clears and the hills dry-out, the fire is not expected to kick-up as it has in the past.

The type I team demobilized Tuesday, turning the fire’s keys over to a type III team.