The inexact science of environmental politics

The National Parks Conservation Association decried this month's decision on Sylvan Pass as the triumph of "politics over science."

Perhaps we should all be more concerned about math.

The NPCA believes the evidence says managing Sylvan for avalanches is dangerous and not worth it. They argue the pass should be closed each winter.

They may be right, but I would submit that some of the evidence is - scientifically speaking - a little fuzzy.

In comments made to the National Park Service in June 2007 (available here), the group wrote that closing Sylvan for a few blustery months wouldn't hurt Park County's bottom line.

The NPCA wrote (on the bottom of page 3):

"According to Wyoming Department of Revenue statistics, county hotel and motel tax collections saw a 40.7 percent increase from 2002-2006 for January-March. These significant economic benefits have been incurred despite a drop in winter visitation through the east entrance."

But not so fast.

In a 2007 study, University of Wyoming professor David Taylor took a slightly different approach and arrived at a totally different conclusion.

Taylor took the tax data from 2001-2006 for December-March, and adjusted them for inflation. He found that the county's tax revenue actually dropped 5 percent.

The NPCA also wrote that there just aren't enough people using Sylvan Pass in the winter to justify the hundreds of thousands of dollars spent. They said (on the middle of page 3):

"The east entrance is open just 90 days in the winter and visitation has averaged a scant 13 people per day for the past three years. Last season, that number shrank to around 3 entries per day."

No doubt, 13 folks a day is kinda low, and 3 entries a day is downright crummy. But a quick math check throws some doubt on the number-crunching.

According to NPS stats (available by going to winter reports here), 543 folks passed through the pass in 2006-07. Divide that number by a 90 day season, and you've got an average of about 6 visitors per day.

That's still not a whole lot, but it puts NPCA's numbers off by 200%. And that is a whole lot.

Of course, in recent days, the Park Service itself has had a hard time pinning down visitor numbers.

At an informational session for the Sylvan Pass study group (the group charged with figuring out what to do with the pass), an NPS presentation said there were 463 visitors this winter. The NPS stat site says 550. When I called to confirm which number was right, I was told that the correct number was 571.

Go figure.

Political influences and biases are usually pretty easy to figure out.

The math? Not so much - the odds are outstanding that I've messed up some numbers here.

Photo credits: NPS photo of Northeast Entrance by Jim Peaco, 2006; NPS photo of Avalanche Peak by Harlan Kredit, 1973.