Deciphering Park County’s voter turnout

Late last month, the Park County Elections Department brought the 2008 election cycle to an official close with a final purge of the voter rolls. That process removed all inactive voters; it also gave a complete set of numbers to work with in calculating voter turnout.

The Park County Clerk's Office has pegged turnout at 91 percent of registered voters. According to past statistics, that would be the lowest since 1996. But County Clerk Kelly Jensen said that's out of line with election day observations.

“We know based on comments from the judges and everybody who worked the election — it (turnout) was amazing,” Jensen said.

So why do the statistics say differently?

Jensen believes it may be because of the methodology. Here are three examples:

Method #1: The method used by the county clerk’s office this year

Take the number of votes cast (15,049), divided by the number of registered voters on election day plus the number of same-day registrants (total of 16,522).

Turnout: 91%

Pros: Counts everyone who was registered to vote at the time the polls closed.
Cons: Some voters on the election-day rolls are likely no longer eligible to be Park County voters, unfairly lowering the turnout.

Method #2: The method used by the Secretary of State’s office

Take the number of votes cast (15,049), and divide it by the number of voters registered the morning of election day (14,867).

Turnout: 101%

Pros: It looks good.
Cons: The method counts the votes of same-day registrants, but inexplicably doesn’t count them as registered voters. The results, said county elections deputy Virginia Livingston, are “arithmatically suspect.”

“I just have trouble with the premise — how can you have more than 100 percent?” Livingston asks. “If everyone turns out, you have 100 percent.”

Method #3: The method possibly used to calculate past turnouts

Take the number of votes (15,049), divided by the number of registered voters remaining after the voter rolls have been purged of inactive voters (15,305).

Turnout: 98%

Pros: Only counts the number of active registered voters. Some people may have moved out of the county, and voted elsewhere in the United States. “In reality, a bunch of those people that were purged, I’m sure, no longer live here,” Jensen said.
Cons: Registered voters who simply decided not to vote or keep their registration active are let off the hook.

There are undoubtedly other methods as well, but Jensen says the question is largely academic.

“No matter how the numbers shake out, Park County has incredible turnout,” she said.

Nationwide, estimates says that around 62% of all eligible voters cast a ballot in the 2008 general election. My rough calculations say that Park County has around 22,000 folks over the age of 18. With 15,049 ballots cast, that would put our actual turnout around 68%.